Binance BTC Inflows Indicate Weak Selling: Is Bitcoin’s Rally Sustainable?
Introduction
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hover near its fresh all-time high of $111,980, set earlier this week. While skeptics warn of an overheated market, on-chain metrics from CryptoQuant indicate both short-term and long-term holders remain reluctant to sell, hinting at sustained upside potential. This analysis dives deeper into exchange flow data, derivatives indicators, miner behavior and macro drivers to assess if BTC’s current strength can persist.
1. Bitcoin Inflows to Binance: A Barometer of Selling Pressure
Analyzing BTC inflows to major exchanges like Binance helps gauge potential sell pressure. According to CryptoQuant on-chain analyst Darkfrost:
- Short-Term Holders (STHs) deposited over 12,000 BTC during the August 2024 pullback and 14,000 BTC at the March 2025 tariff-induced panic.
- Long-Term Holders (LTHs) sent 626 BTC before the 2024 peak and 254 BTC preceding the previous top.
- In the present rally, however, STHs have transferred just ~8,000 BTC and LTHs only ~86 BTC to Binance.
Darkfrost (CryptoQuant): “Inflows from both cohorts remain muted, suggesting holders expect further appreciation rather than seeking to cash out.”
2. Derivatives Market Indicators
Derivative metrics often foreshadow spot price moves. Key signals include:
- Funding Rate: Persistently positive but near breakeven (0.01% per 8-hour funding), indicating balanced long/short positioning.
- Open Interest: Rising to $30.5 billion, up 12% week-over-week, reflects growing institutional leverage.
- Liquidations: Recent $150 million long squeeze in the CME futures market briefly tested support at $107,000.
Overall, low funding pressure and steady OI growth suggest measured bullish conviction rather than exuberant retail mania.
3. Miner Selling Activity
Miners can flood exchanges when mining rewards surge relative to spot prices. According to Glassnode data:
- Miner Outflows: Averaged 950 BTC/day in the past week—below the 2024 average of 1,200 BTC/day.
- Hashrate & Difficulty: Hashrate remains elevated at 480 EH/s, pinning difficulty near all-time highs and keeping miner operational costs steady.
This restrained miner selling indicates cost lines have not yet pressured holders to liquidate rewards aggressively.
4. Macro and Regulatory Context
Broader economic factors also influence BTC demand:
- Federal Reserve Sentiment: Recent Fed minutes signal a potential pause in rate hikes, easing the US dollar’s strength.
- ETF Race: BlackRock and Fidelity await SEC approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs, which could inject billions in fresh capital.
- Geopolitical Demand: Increased Bitcoin adoption in regions facing FX controls continues to bolster on-chain flows.
5. Risk Factors & Warning Signs
Despite healthy demand, some indicators warrant caution:
- Support Break Risk: Crypto strategist Ali Martinez warns that a close below $106,800 could trigger a rapid decline toward $102,000.
- Retail FOMO: Low retail exchange inflows suggest broader participation has yet to peak, but could accelerate on a breakout above $112,000.
Conclusion
Exchange inflows from both STHs and LTHs remain subdued despite BTC flirting with new highs, indicating holders anticipate further gains. Derivatives data and miner outflows align with a measured bull case, while macro tailwinds—especially ETF developments—could amplify markets. However, traders should remain vigilant of key support levels and sudden funding rate spikes.
Additional Reading
- Bitcoin Rebound Signals Healthier Bull Market Without Overheating
- Spot Bitcoin ETF Applications: What’s Next After BlackRock’s Filing?