Ethereum Aims for $3,800 Target in Early 2024 Setup
This week, Ethereum (ETH) reclaimed the $2,600 level as a firm support for the first time since February, breaking out of a short-term consolidation and aiming for its next supply zone. Industry experts and on-chain data now suggest that ETH’s rally could extend toward its Macro Range high around $3,800 over the coming weeks.
Recent Price Action and Key Levels
- Support Flip: ETH has held >$2,600 for two consecutive days, testing resistance at $2,700–$2,750.
- Local High: May 10 saw a multi-month high of $2,738, but supply pressures capped upside until this week.
- Range Recovery: Since dipping below $2,000 earlier in May, ETH traded in a $2,400–$2,600 channel, now breaking above it.
Technical Pattern: Bullish Flag Breakout
Analyst Titan of Crypto was first to identify a two-week bullish flag on ETH’s 4-hour chart. The measured move from this pattern points to:
- Entry: Break above $2,650–$2,670 resistance.
- Target: $3,780–$3,820, aligning with the upper boundary of the $2,220–$3,900 Macro Range.
“If this breakout holds, ETH is likely to test $3,800 within 4–5 weeks,” Titan noted, highlighting rising volumes on the breakout candle.
Macro Range Retest and Moving Averages
On the weekly time frame, Ethereum has successfully retested the $2,468 zone—formerly resistance—as support for four straight weeks. Rekt Capital observes this as a textbook replay of ETH’s January–February setup, which preceded a 50% rally:
- Weekly SMA50 crossed above SMA100 in early May, adding to bullish momentum.
- Price closed above the mid-range level of $2,486, confirming the lift across the $2,220–$3,900 range.
“The only difference is that it has taken slightly longer this time,” Rekt Capital added, pointing to a protracted accumulation phase.
Momentum vs. Bitcoin and Market Structure
Analyst Ted Pillows emphasizes Ethereum’s outperformance relative to Bitcoin (BTC) this quarter. Key observations include:
- ETH/BTC Pair: A rising trend channel on the daily chart suggests growing ETH dominance among altcoins.
- Weekly MACD Cross: Bullish crossover confirms upward momentum.
- BTC Dominance: Has pulled back from 55% to 51%, offering alts room to run.
Pillows forecasts that Ethereum could challenge the $4,000 resistance if this structure remains intact.
New Section: On-Chain Fundamentals and Network Health
Beyond price charts, on-chain metrics reinforce ETH’s bullish outlook:
- Active Addresses: Daily unique addresses have climbed 15% month-to-date, indicating renewed network usage.
- Gas Fees: Average gas per transaction is up 12%, driven by sustained DeFi activity on Uniswap V3 and layer-2 rollups.
- Staking Flows: Over 600,000 ETH entered the staking contract post-Shanghai, reducing circulating supply by 0.5%.
“Rising staking inflows and higher on-chain demand suggest reduced sell pressure,” says Delphi Digital researcher Max Bronstein.
New Section: Derivatives and Sentiment Indicators
Futures markets are also signaling a constructive backdrop:
- Open Interest: ETH perpetual futures OI has increased 20% in June, reflecting speculative commitment.
- Funding Rates: Average positive funding of 0.02% per 8-hour period suggests long bias among traders.
- Options Skew: Put/call skew sits at 0.95, indicating slightly more bullish call demand.
New Section: Upcoming Catalysts and Risks
Key events could accelerate or stall ETH’s next move:
- Protocol Upgrades: EIP-4844 for proto-danksharding is scheduled for late Q3, likely boosting L2 throughput and reducing fees.
- Regulatory Clarity: U.S. SEC decisions on ETH spot ETFs may add institutional capital or introduce headwinds.
- Macro Backdrop: A Fed rate pivot or renewed risk-on sentiment in equities could amplify ETH’s rally.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s current price action replicates the successful pattern seen earlier this year, supported by robust on-chain activity, bullish technicals, and growing derivatives interest. With $2,600 now proven as support, a confirmed retest of $2,850–$2,900 could pave the way to $3,800 and beyond, provided upcoming catalysts unfold as anticipated.