Trump’s Gulf Tour Seeks to Boost US-Gulf Investment and Tech Ties

US President Donald Trump arrives in Riyadh on Tuesday for a high-stakes investment forum, marking his first official overseas trip since inauguration—delayed only by a papal funeral in Rome. With global energy markets in flux and technology competition intensifying, Washington is seeking to deepen economic ties with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, targeting up to $1 trillion in Gulf investment commitments over four years.

US–Saudi Investment Forum: Background and Objectives

The Investment Forum co-hosted by the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the US Departments of Commerce and Treasury will convene more than 2,000 delegates. Key topics include sustainability, AI, aerospace, defence and healthcare. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, has pledged $600 billion in US investments over the next four years; Trump hopes to push that figure toward $1 trillion through bilateral deals and fund partnerships.

“Our aim is to catalyse transformative private-sector investment in sectors critical to both economies—energy, technology, defence and healthcare,” said Khalid bin Abdulaziz Al-Falih, Saudi investment minister.

Gulf States’ Investment Pledges and Portfolio Details

The PIF’s portfolio already includes high-profile US assets: a 20% stake in Uber, sizeable commitments to Lucid Motors and a growing position in Silicon Valley venture funds. However, experts question whether a $600 billion annual inflow is feasible:

• Saudi Arabia’s FDI declined to $15 billion in 2023 amid lower oil revenues (EIA data).
• Debt-to-GDP remains elevated at 32%, limiting fiscal room for outward investment (IMF report, April 2024).
• US Treasury export licenses for advanced chips now require case-by-case approval, slowing some PIF tech acquisitions.

Vision 2030 and Sectoral Diversification

Under Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia aims to generate $100 billion per year in foreign direct investment by 2030, targeting mining, tourism, entertainment and renewables. The kingdom’s sovereign fund is structuring cross-border special-purpose vehicles (SPVs) to co-invest with US asset managers—leveraging tax-efficient Master Feeder structures under the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA).

Semiconductors, AI and Technology Collaboration

Semiconductor supply chain security is top of mind for both capitals. In April 2024, the US Commerce Department lifted broad export restrictions on certain AI accelerators and 7-nanometer logic chips for “trusted partners,” explicitly including Saudi Arabia. The exemptions accelerate Riyadh’s plan to build a national AI Research Park near NEOM, with a projected 10 exaflops of computing capacity by 2027.

“Opening up these export channels will boost Gulf AI initiatives and strengthen US chipmakers’ global lead,” noted Dr. Ellen Lee, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Expanded Analysis: Impact on US Technology Sector

Increased Gulf capital inflows could support expansions at major US semiconductor firms—Intel, Nvidia and AMD—through equity investments or joint R&D ventures. Technical collaborations around advanced packaging (e.g., 3D-IC stacking, chiplet integration) are under negotiation. The US-China tech decoupling has created a strategic window for Gulf partners, reducing the risk of secondary sanctions under the Entity List regime.

Expanded Analysis: Regional Security and Defence Implications

Riyadh also seeks improved access to US military equipment. Last month’s executive order relaxes Foreign Military Sales (FMS) restrictions on Patriot missile systems and combat drones. Combined with Gulf commitments to co-fund R&D in directed-energy weapons, this deepens strategic interoperability under the Integrated Air and Missile Defence architecture.

Expanded Analysis: Long-Term Outlook for Gulf-US Economic Ties

While headline pledges attract attention, sustainability depends on macro stability:

1. Oil price volatility: Brent crude hovers around $75/barrel amid OPEC+ output cuts.
2. Fiscal reforms: Saudi budget breakeven requires $80–$90/barrel under current expenditure plans.
3. Governance standards: Alignment on AML/CFT regulations will facilitate capital flow under the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) framework.

With the UAE’s announced $1.4 trillion pledge over 10 years and Qatar’s expected commitment this week, Gulf states are vying to diversify investments away from hydrocarbons—while strengthening geopolitical ties with Washington.

Forum Agenda and Key Speakers

• Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman
• PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan and Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih
• CEOs Stephen Schwarzman (Blackstone), Larry Fink (BlackRock), Jane Fraser (Citigroup), Arvind Krishna (IBM)
• Ruth Porat (Alphabet/Google), White House AI Ambassador David Sacks

Next Stops: Qatar and the UAE

On 14 May, Trump will join Gulf Cooperation Council leaders before travelling to Doha, where a $400 million Air Force One replacement offer by Qatar hogged headlines and sparked constitutional questions in Washington. His final stop in Abu Dhabi follows the UAE’s multibillion-dollar sovereign fund pledges.

Conclusion

The success of Trump’s Gulf tour will be measured less by headline figures and more by signed term sheets, export license approvals, and the establishment of joint R&D frameworks. As global competition for energy, technology and capital intensifies, this week’s meetings could reshape US-Gulf economic relations for a decade.