$3 XRP Expectations Delayed—Analyst Sees Low Momentum Ahead
The daily XRP chart has once again slipped into a state of stagnation, just as bulls were anticipating decisive upward movement. Crypto strategist Dr. Cat (@DoctorCatX), who specializes in Ichimoku analysis, expressed skepticism about XRP reaching $3 or even its all-time high (ATH) in June. He stated, “I would be surprised to see $3, let alone ATH in June,” indicating that the potential for a bullish breakout has not been capitalized on during a critical window.
XRP Bulls Miss Their Shot
The chart shared by Dr. Cat depicts XRP against the U.S. dollar (XRP-USD) trading at approximately $2.14, hovering near the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. After an early May surge that saw the price pierce through the cloud’s upper edge on significant trading volume, momentum has waned considerably. The failed attempt to reclaim the Kijun-sen, which currently sits flat around $2.35, is particularly concerning for bullish traders.
In technical terms, the price action has printed two consecutive daily closes beneath the cloud, indicating a lack of bullish follow-through. The Tenkan-sen has dipped below the Kijun-sen, signaling diminishing short-term momentum. Furthermore, the Chikou Span, or lagging line, remains buried within overlapping candles, which reflects a neutral state rather than outright bearishness. This suggests that a strong upward trend is far from imminent.
Timeframe for a Bullish Emergence
Dr. Cat emphasizes that the emergence of Ichimoku bull markets requires substantial time and effort, generally necessitating a full 26-period cycle to rebuild after a failed breakout attempt. He states, “If the window of opportunity is missed and these conditions are not utilized, it’s not a good sign,” adding that the most optimistic outlook implies a delay in any breakout attempts until at least July or August. If current momentum continues to stagnate, a recovery might stretch into November.
Lower-Timeframe Analysis Points to Selling Pressure
On lower timeframes, the situation appears precarious. The analyst highlights persistent selling pressure on the medium-term timeframes without any signals of strength, noting that the XRP/BTC pairing has recently slid down to 2041 satoshis, a significant monthly support level. This price point has become a focal point for Dr. Cat’s broader thesis; if it holds through the summer, it might create the conditions necessary for a thinner-cloud breakout around November. It is worth noting that the cloud’s thickness diminishes substantially later in the year, which could permit more volatility.
Broader Market Context
Examining the weekly template reveals a stark picture, with Dr. Cat asserting, “there is nothing bullish” currently. The weekly Ichimoku cloud is widening in front of the price action, and the unresolved Tenkan-Kijun bear cross reflects a lack of buying interest. Trend-following traders typically rely on both candle bodies and the Chikou Span convincingly breaking above the cloud and historical price levels. As it stands, the existing setup provides minimal immediate catalysts for bullish momentum.
Nevertheless, the monthly outlook for the USD pairing presents a more constructive view, indicating that while bullish momentum is dormant, it hasn’t vanished entirely. Dr. Cat notes the danger of a drop towards the $1.89 zone in the near term, a price region coinciding with the flat bottom of the cloud twist from April and a visible shelf of historical volume accumulation. Should this support level fail, minimal support exists until the $1.70 region, where a spike in March initiated another upward phase.
Conditional Resilience
Despite the overall neutral outlook, Dr. Cat remains hesitant to label the current environment a bear market. He highlights the positive note that the three-day dynamics are not trending bearish for the USD pair, signifying that the closing prices have yet to produce a definitive shift below the three-day Kijun-sen. If XRP can maintain cloud support into July, the potential for another attempt towards the upper boundary of the cloud around $2.40 may arise.
For a bullish narrative to resurface, a clear break above this threshold, accompanied by a bullish Tenkan-Kijun cross and a Chikou Span that breaches historical price levels, would necessitate a reevaluation of the prospects for hitting the elusive $3 mark before year-end.
Conclusion: A Period of Patience
In summary, Dr. Cat asserts that even the most bullish scenario for June is a sideways movement below the ATH. As traders look forward toward November when the XRP/BTC pair’s cloud narrows significantly, they must remain vigilant around the 2041-satoshi support level while being prepared for several more weeks of sideways drift or potential downside probing toward $1.89. As of the last update, XRP is trading at $2.17.
Featured image: Created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Source: newsbtc