Can Bitcoin Hit $130,000 This September? Insights on Smart Money
In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, significant movements in the options market can serve as crucial indicators of future price developments. Recently, Singapore-based trading desk QCP Capital has delivered insights suggesting that large market players are preparing for a bullish break-out to $130,000 for Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of Q3, even as the asset currently hovers around the $105,000 mark.
Increasing Demand for $130,000 Calls
As outlined in a client note on Wednesday, QCP Capital emphasized that the options landscape is witnessing heightened activity around long-dated call options for Bitcoin, particularly those set at the $130,000 strike price. The firm noted a surge in job openings which has positively influenced risk appetite in broader equity markets, nudging the S&P 500 closer to the psychologically significant mark of 6,000.
“A steady Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report would reinforce the narrative surrounding the Fed’s perception of a resilient labor market, suggesting that interest rates are likely to remain stable,” stated QCP. At the same time, front-end Bitcoin volatility has dropped below 40 vol, indicating that traders are adopting a cautious stance ahead of the key payroll data release scheduled for later this week.
Contrasting Calmness in Options and Spot Markets
Despite the apparent calm in spot markets, where Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, the options market reveals a more dynamic picture. Specifically, QCP reported that September $130,000 calls were transacted at an implied volatility (IV) of 47 vol, reflecting a concentrated interest in upside potential as traders position for price action heading into Q3.
Market Volatility Insights
The volatility term structure for Bitcoin has now flattened to levels not seen since May, prompting institutional and opportunistic funds to take positions. This strategic move involves buying long-dated volatility (vega) while selling short-dated instruments (gamma), replicating a trend seen more broadly in equity markets. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has also declined to three-month lows, further signaling a systemic decrease in overall market volatility.
QCP highlighted that Bitcoin’s implied volatility curve appears