Swan Bitcoin Highlights a Shift in Crypto Investment Strategy

As of June 5, Bitcoin’s price has settled just above $105,000, marking its lowest realized volatility in almost two years. In a compelling discussion on X, Swan Bitcoin, a Los Angeles-based financial services firm focused exclusively on Bitcoin, has put forth a bold assertion: the cryptocurrency market is poised for a radical re-pricing that could fundamentally alter the landscape of digital asset investments.

The Last Chance to Buy?

Swan Bitcoin’s analysis references historical market patterns, specifically the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price over the years, which typically follows a four-year boom-and-bust cycle. However, this time, they argue, we are witnessing what they term ‘the last rotation’ in this pattern—a significant transition where Bitcoin is being increasingly acquired by institutions with far longer investment horizons than the typical retail investor. In a statement attributed to Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, Swan notes a clear shift: “People less committed to the long term are exiting… and a whole new class of investors is entering.” This transition involves a measure of moves from retail speculators to institutional buyers, including ETFs and multinational investment firms like BlackRock and Fidelity.

Breaking the Historical Pattern

The year 2025 has significantly deviated from the established narrative arcs of previous Bitcoin cycles observed in 2013, 2017, and 2021, which typically saw explosive price movements during the third year of investment. This time around, while the market has experienced substantial fluctuations, there has also been a notable increase in consolidation periods characterized by “sideways chop,” indicating a prolonged stabilization in price movements. According to Swan, this seeming stagnation has begun to bore some investors, but it might be more indicative of a well-orchestrated supply squeeze.

• Long-Term Holding and Supply Dynamics: Swan believes that the market is witnessing significant selling by long-term holders above the $100,000 mark, as they take profits after substantial gains. Concurrently, these profits are being absorbed by what Swan dubs “long-only buyers”—institutions that enter the market with a buy-and-hold strategy, effectively removing these coins from circulation.
• Three Intertwined Rotations: Swan identifies three types of rotations occurring simultaneously:
  1. Between entities—where traditional retail investors, including early adopters and legal custodians, are exiting the market, making way for institutional players.
  2. Between intentions—this movement reads as a transition from speculative trading towards pragmatic asset allocation, as entities shift mindsets from short-term gains to long-term value accrual.
  3. Between generations—different generations are diversifying their portfolios differently, with Millennials—entering their peak accumulation years—shifting their focus towards Bitcoin, as opposed to traditional asset classes.

Liquidity and Macroeconomic Factors

Swan contends that the prevailing supply dynamics could render these shifts irreversible. They assert that when long-term capital meets an inelastic supply of Bitcoin, the available float begins to diminish rapidly: “That’s when things get explosive.” The current macroeconomic backdrop underscores this theory, as Swan highlights a rare and potentially troubling phenomenon: the U.S. dollar is weakening concurrently with surging bond yields. This unique scenario may prompt investors to seek out Bitcoin as a neutral store of value, further diminishing the liquid supply available in the market.

Conclusion: The End of an Era?

Swan concludes with a stark warning for current investors: “If you’re selling now, understand you’re likely handing your Bitcoin to an institution that plans to hold it indefinitely. Once it’s gone, you’re probably never getting it back.” This advisement suggests that the current calm near the $105,000 mark is less indicative of market exhaustion and more reflective of a temporary lull in an impending expansive movement. Swan describes this juncture as the eye of a generational storm—one that could lead to extreme volatility once the last marginal sellers exit the market.

“Think twice before becoming a profit-taker,” Swan cautions. “The float is drying up. The buyers are built different. This is the last Bitcoin rotation.”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $104,605. With these insights, Swan Bitcoin paints a picture not merely of another cycle but suggests the potential conclusion of an era in Bitcoin’s talent transition, making it imperative for investors to reassess their strategies.

Source: newsbtc