Bitcoin Rally Intensifies Amid Policy Developments
Bitcoin (BTC) is once again in the spotlight, with a leading crypto analyst forecasting a push above the $120,000 mark after a unanimous ruling from the U.S. Court of International Trade blocked President Donald Trump’s proposed “reciprocal tariffs.” The decision, which many market participants are calling an “epic mic drop,” has set off fresh momentum across both spot and derivatives markets.
Court Decision Sparks Market Repositioning
On May 28, the U.S. Court of International Trade issued an injunction against Trump’s executive order to impose broad-based tariffs on all trading partners at a minimum rate of 10%. The court found that the president had exceeded statutory authority under the Trade Act of 1974, effectively nullifying the proposed measures until a full appeal is heard.
Pav Hundal, Lead Analyst at Swyftx: “This ruling blows a hole in trade uncertainty and will likely accelerate capital flows into risk assets—Bitcoin chief among them. New all-time highs are now in clear sight.”
Since setting its previous all-time high of $111,970 on May 22, BTC has retraced modestly to around $107,750, per CoinMarketCap data. However, Swyftx’s Hundal argues that the short dip represents a buying opportunity ahead of renewed upward pressure.
ETF Inflows and On-Chain Signals
Institutional adoption remains a core driver. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.75 billion in net inflows during the week ending May 23. This wave of capital has pushed combined ETF assets under management (AUM) above $35 billion, narrowing the premium on secondary markets to under 0.5%.
On-chain metrics reinforce the bullish thesis:
- Exchange Outflows: Daily outflows from centralized exchanges have averaged 15,000 BTC over the past 10 days, signaling accumulation by long-term holders.
- Hash Ribbon Signal: The recent miner capitulation signal turned bullish, suggesting a reduction in sell pressure from mining operations.
- Active Addresses: Daily active addresses have consistently traded above 1.25 million, up 8% month-on-month.
Additional Analysis
1. Derivatives Market Dynamics
Open interest across BTC perpetual futures on major exchanges (Binance, Bybit, OKX) has swelled to $12 billion, with funding rates tipping positive at 0.01% per 8 hours. Call option open interest at the $120K strike has surged by 40% in the past week, indicating strong bullish conviction.
2. Regulatory and Compliance Outlook
While the court ruling lifts a major overhang, regulatory scrutiny on digital asset custodians and DeFi protocols is intensifying. The SEC’s recent guidance on digital asset spot markets and the CFTC’s enforcement actions are expected to clarify the legal framework, potentially unlocking further institutional inflows into regulated vehicles.
3. Macro Implications for Trade and Currency
Trade policy uncertainty has historically correlated inversely with Bitcoin’s correlation to traditional equities. The removal of tariff risks suggests a decoupling phase, where BTC could outperform S&P 500 and gold if U.S. dollar weakness persists amid expanding fiscal deficits.
Expert Perspectives and Price Targets
Supporting the bullish outlook, Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets at Standard Chartered, recently projected Bitcoin at $120,000 in H1 2025 and $200,000 by year-end, citing the accelerating stablecoin ecosystem as a primary liquidity catalyst.
Arthur Hayes, BitMEX Co-Founder: “Buy everything round dos. The market mechanics are now aligned for a blow-off rally.”
Outlook and Risks
- Legal Appeals: The Trump administration has signaled intentions to appeal. A reversal could reintroduce short-term volatility.
- Regulatory Crackdowns: Heightened scrutiny on crypto lending and stablecoin reserves could temper speculative flows.
- Global Macroeconomics: Interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions remain key external drivers.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute financial advice. All investments carry risk—perform your own research before making decisions.