Ethereum Price Pullback; Analyzing On-Chain Metrics & ETF Flows
Ethereum price started a fresh decline from the $2,780 resistance zone, facing pressure on multiple fronts including shifting ETF flows, evolving on-chain metrics, and upcoming network upgrades. Traders are watching key technical and fundamental levels to gauge the next move in ETH/USD.
Technical Analysis and Key Levels
- Immediate Resistance: $2,650 aligns with the 100-hour SMA and a horizontal barrier formed over the past 48 hours.
- Primary Support: $2,550, coinciding with the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent $2,463–$2,787 rally.
- Trendline Break: Hourly chart shows a breach of a rising trendline with pivot around $2,625, confirmed by an expanding bearish MACD histogram.
As Ethereum trades below both the 50% and 61.8% Fib levels of the latest upswing, momentum indicators such as the RSI have slipped below 50, signaling a mild bearish tilt. A sustained move under $2,550 could open the door toward $2,500 and potentially $2,440 in the coming sessions.
On-Chain Metrics Overview
On-chain analytics provider Glassnode reports stable daily active addresses around 550,000, while net ETH inflows into staking contracts hit new highs ahead of the Dencun upgrade. The burn rate, measured on Etherscan, remains elevated at ~8,000 ETH/day, underpinning a deflationary bias. Meanwhile, the ratio of wrapped staked ETH (stETH) to total supply has climbed above 7.2%, indicating increased demand for liquid staking derivatives.
Futures & Derivatives Analysis
Data from CME shows open interest in Ether futures rising to $1.2 billion, with funding rates slightly negative at –0.02% per 8-hour period. Options market skew, as tracked by Deribit, hovers around 1.05, suggesting a mild call bias. According to a report by Delphi Digital, delta-hedging flows have been concentrated at the $2,800 strike, amplifying the current correction.
Network Upgrades & Developer Activity
The Ethereum core developers have greenlit the EIP-4844 (proto-danksharding) parameter changes for the upcoming Cancun/Deneb upgrade, expected in Q3. This enhancement aims to reduce Layer-2 rollup fees by up to 80%, potentially boosting throughput and lowering congestion. GitHub commit activity remains robust, averaging 1,200 merges weekly, pointing to sustained developer engagement.
Expert Opinions
“The interplay between ETF inflows and on-chain demand will likely dictate ETH’s near-term trajectory. A break below $2,550 could trigger liquidations, but the upcoming network upgrade provides a structural bullish case,” said Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Crypto.
Outlook
If Ethereum clears $2,650, bulls may target $2,720 and the $2,780 zone. Conversely, failure to regain key moving averages could see ETH revisit $2,500 or lower, especially if macro headwinds intensify.