Five Indicators Suggest Bitcoin May Rise Further
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to demonstrate multiple technical, on-chain and market-driven indicators suggesting further gains beyond its all-time high near $112,000. From relentless whale accumulation to record derivatives open interest and steadfast institutional flows, these metrics provide a comprehensive framework for assessing Bitcoin’s next price action.
Key takeaways:
- Whale and medium-sized Bitcoin holders are expanding their positions, a pattern historically tied to extended bull runs.
- Spot BTC ETFs have recorded over $5 billion in inflows since late April, underlining institutional confidence.
- Futures and options open interest hit record highs, indicating leverage buildup and advanced hedging strategies.
- Technical indicators—RSI, MACD crossovers and moving average confluences—support continued upward momentum.
- Macro factors such as declining real yields, Fed policy expectations and the upcoming halving reinforce Bitcoin’s supply scarcity thesis.
Bitcoin whales and medium-sized holders accelerate accumulation
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant reports that wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC have increased their share of supply by 1.8% since May 6, coinciding with a 16% price upswing. Simultaneously, Santiment data reveals that the cohort of 100–1,000 BTC addresses grew by 337 wallets in six weeks, collectively adding 122,330 BTC (~$13.5 billion at current levels).
“Large-scale accumulation by entities commanding >100 BTC is historically a precursor to multi-month rallies, given the reduced sell-side pressure,” says Jan Van Eck, Chief Market Strategist at CryptoMetrics Lab.
Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) remains at 1.0—its maximum—signalling intense buying pressure. Historically, when ATS sustains above 0.8 for over 20 days, Bitcoin’s 30-day forward return averages +15%.
Strong spot Bitcoin ETF inflows underpin demand
US-listed spot BTC ETFs have continued to attract institutional and retail capital. SoSoValue data shows over $4.2 billion in net inflows across ten consecutive trading days, bringing total YTD ETF inflows to $28 billion.
“Sustained buy-side pressure from retail and institutions since the ETFs launched in January 2024 has been a significant tailwind, supporting all ATH breaks,” notes Glassnode in its latest Week Onchain report.
CoinShares further reports that BTC investment products gathered $3 billion in net inflows during the week ending May 23—underscoring broad-based confidence in Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier and store of value.
Investor sentiment remains firmly bullish
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 74—squarely in the “greed” zone—after bouncing off mid-level readings between February and April. Sustained sentiment above 50 has preceded major rallies in past cycles.
While current greed readings remain below the extremes of 82 in March 2024 and 94 in December 2024, there is scope for the index to climb into the “extreme greed” zone (>85), potentially fueling further price upside.
Derivatives open interest hits new peaks
Futures open interest (OI) has expanded from $50.8 billion on April 8 to a record $80.5 billion on May 23, and stands at $78.4 billion today—a 54% rise in 50 days. This leverage accumulation often accompanies bullish price action as traders chase momentum.
Options OI has similarly surged to $46.2 billion—up from $20.4 billion—reflecting a maturing market using calls, puts and spreads to fine-tune risk and leverage. “High sustained options OI correlates with prolonged euphoria phases,” says Glassnode.
Technical indicators confirm bullish momentum
RSI and MACD: The 14-day RSI sits at 68—below overbought territory—while the 12/26 MACD line crossed above its signal line on May 10, a classic buy signal. Both metrics historically align with strong 20–40% rallies when confirmed above their 50-day moving averages.
Bollinger Bands: BTC price has consistently traded near the upper band since late April, indicating high volatility and upward bias. A 20-day SMA squeeze, recently resolved to the upside, often preludes major breakouts.
Moving Average Confluence: The 50-day and 100-day SMAs have formed a bullish “golden cross” at $84,000 in early May—another multi-week bullish hallmark across asset markets.
Macroeconomic climate and halving cycle amplify outlook
Real yields on 10-year US Treasuries have declined from 1.5% in April to 1.2% today, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC. Meanwhile, dovish Fed forward guidance ahead of the June FOMC meeting has softened dollar strength, a positive for dollar-denominated Bitcoin.
“As yield curves flatten and real rates drop, Bitcoin’s risk premium becomes more attractive to institutional allocators,” argues Dr. Elena Garcia, Head of Digital Assets Research at MacroQuant Analytics.
On the supply side, the next Bitcoin halving is just nine months away. Network issuance will drop from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block—halving new supply and historically triggering 3–6-month lagged price surges.
Network health confirms robust fundamentals
Hash Rate & Difficulty: Bitcoin’s hash rate has climbed above 350 EH/s, a 25% year-to-date increase, while mining difficulty recently adjusted +8%. These metrics reflect miner confidence and resilience against potential sell pressure from mining revenues.
On-chain Activity: Daily transaction count is averaging 350,000 transfers—up 15% over three months—while on-chain fee revenue has doubled since Q1, underscoring growing network utility and value capture by miners.
Price targets: $120K in sight, longer-term $200K+
Liquidation heat maps show a dense cluster of orders between $111,000 and $115,000. Market-maker sweeps of these levels could catalyze a cascade of short squeezes, propelling BTC toward the $120,000 zone—also the upper MVRV extreme deviation band.
“$120K is a critical supply-resistance zone, but once cleared, institutional FOMO could drive a parabolic move toward $200K by year-end,” comments Sarah Lee, CIO at YieldRadar Capital.
In summary, overlapping on-chain accumulation, ETF inflows, derivative leverage, technical momentum and macro tailwinds suggest Bitcoin’s path of least resistance remains upward. The confluence of these seven signals supports a near-term target of $120,000 and a broader potential to test $200,000 by late 2025.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. All trading involves risk, and readers should perform their own research.